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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2022 Aug 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 17-Aug 19 2022 is 7 (NOAA Scale G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 17-Aug 19 2022

Aug 17Aug 18Aug 19
00-03UT26 (G2)6 (G2)
03-06UT37 (G3)5 (G1)
06-09UT26 (G2)4
09-12UT35 (G1)4
12-15UT45 (G1)4
15-18UT5 (G1)44
18-21UT5 (G1)43
21-00UT5 (G1)43

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 17 Aug as a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. CMEs from 14-15 Aug are expected to merge with this HSS early on 18 Aug, increasing geomagnetic storm levels to G3 (Strong). G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely to persist into 19 Aug.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2022

Aug 17Aug 18Aug 19
S1 or greater10%10%10%


Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 or greater solar radiation storms as Region 3078 rotates into an increasingly geoeffective position on the solar disk.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 16 2022 2121 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2022

              Aug 17        Aug 18        Aug 19
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for R3 or grater radio blackouts, given the magnetic
complexity and recent flare activity of Region 3078.

Sun Images

eit 171 eit 195 eit 284 eit 304

Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.

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Solar cycle

Sunspot numbers F10.7CM Radio flux AP
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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

Solar wind Satellite impact Xray flux
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On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. Right: 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Auroral activity

Northern Auroral map Southern Auroral map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.

Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).


Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

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